Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Charles Hugh Smith on "China's House of Cards "

I just include here the highlights from this excellent post:
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Take a look at the systemic problems facing China's leadership and tell me the "house of cards" metaphor isn't apt:

...the Chinese Communist Party has its own key contradictions...In a one-party state, oversight is inherently weak, for those in power can always squelch any oversight which threatens to limit their benefits or prerogatives. Without oversight and other balancing centers of power, then corruption, mismanagement and mis-allocation of capital are permanent features of any one-party society and economy...

For Chinese workers, they now have the worst of both worlds. They have the limited education and opportunities of a systemically corrupt Communist society, and high "free-market" costs for medical care...

a small generation of workers is now supposed to supposed to support a much larger aging generation...

Only half Chinese speak Mandarin...

One huge fly in the ointment for the cheerleaders is the central government's lack of control of local governments...The net result: local governments and their financial partners are mismanaging China's resources, financial assets and environment on a staggering scale.

My point here is: China is supposedly the golden investment of the century, the industrializing power that will pull the rest of the world to prosperity. But the evidence suggests China's run is about over.

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I think that these are all valid points and bear significant investigation by anyone interested in China's future...

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